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Introduction

A scenario on Tensor Cloud is a set of assumptions about the future, and each assumption is a set of values over time. This is much like the assumptions about future electricity prices or yearly inflation rates you would make when building a techno-economic model of an asset or portfolio in Excel.

Compared with keeping these assumptions in a spreadsheet, scenarios on Tensor Cloud have three advantages:

  1. Scale: you can apply a scenario to hundreds or thousands of assets at once, and any change to the scenario or its assumptions is reflected immediately in the financial and technical results of every asset that uses it.
  2. Flexibility: you can swap one assumption for another in a scenario, including assumptions made by third parties, such as price forecasts from think tanks or government organizations.
  3. Granularity: for assumptions such as electricity prices, Tensor Cloud does the calculation at 30-minute resolution for you, so you do not have to fill in thousands of spreadsheet cells. All you provide are average prices and spreads for one or more years over the lifetime of your portfolio.

Scenarios overview page​

Click Library > Scenarios in the main side navigation to open the scenarios overview page. It lists all scenarios in your workspace with their ID, name, description, inflation, average price, and area curtailment assumptions, and when they were last updated and added. You can search the list by scenario name and choose which columns to show in the view options.

Click the Edit button on the right of a scenario to open its settings. The Delete button next to it deletes the scenario; to delete several scenarios at once, select them in the list and click Delete. The Tensor baseline scenario cannot be deleted. To add a scenario, click Add new at the top right.

Scenario page​

Click the name of a scenario in the list to open its scenario page, which shows:

  • The scenario description.
  • Forward curves: the day-ahead market price, area curtailment, and zonal solar generation that Tensor Cloud derives from the scenario at 30-minute resolution. See price forward curves for the methodology.
  • 0.01 Yen slots: the number and share of ¥0.01 price slots per year, month, or day, depending on the selected period.
  • The base curve version used by the scenario.
  • Assumptions: the values of every assumption in the scenario, as a chart or a list.

Use the grid area selector at the top right to switch the forward curves between grid areas. The menu next to it lets you edit the scenario, Recalculate its forward curves, Download results as a CSV file with the 30-minute day-ahead price, area curtailment, and zonal solar generation of the selected grid area, or delete the scenario.

The Tensor baseline scenario​

Every new workspace on Tensor Cloud comes with a baseline scenario, which is applied automatically to all new assets you add.

The Tensor baseline scenario uses conservative default assumptions and is built mainly on two third-party datasets:

  • The Cabinet Office's consumer price projection for inflation to FY2040
  • The METI Grid Working Group's long-term forecast of curtailment in each grid area

See scenario settings for a full description of every setting.

tip

Create a scenario that reflects your own and your investors' assumptions about future macroeconomic and energy market developments, and do not rely on the Tensor baseline scenario for critical decisions.